From my office email. Sharing it here for everybody to know.
Latest updates on “TYPHOON PEPENG”. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system at its closest point of approach (CPA) to Bicol Region - about 300 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC on Friday evening, with Category 4 strength of 215-220 kph near its EYE...and shall slow down while approaching the Northeastern corner of Luzon (Cagayan-Isabela). The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass very close to the NE tip of Cagayan late Sunday afternoon (Oct 4) and shall further slow down but reaching Super Typhoon strength (240 kph) as it enters the Balintang Channel early Monday morning (Oct 5). "PEPENG" shall pass directly or very close to the Batanes Group of Islands early Tuesday morning (Oct 6) as it moves towards Southern Taiwan.
Effects: "PEPENG"'s circulation is slowly growing in size as it moves across the Philippine Sea and is now an average tropical cyclone. Its outer (feeder) bands has approached the coastal areas of Visayas and the Bicol Region including Northern & Eastern Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these areas today.
Tropical Storm conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph together with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the coastal areas of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Provinces, Quezon and Polilio Island.
Tropical Storm conditions w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph is expected in the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Cagayan, Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Southern Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island.
Flood-stricken areas of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila will be under the typhoon's outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along these areas.